Free Cheat Sheet

The Cross-Asset
Cheat Sheet

The one-page reference every macro trader needs. See exactly how BTC, Gold, the S&P 500, and the Dollar relate to each other — before every trade.

Full correlation matrix Pre-trade checklist Regime quick reference
Cross-Asset Correlation Matrix
How each market typically reacts to macro conditions
Macro Condition BTC Gold S&P 500 DXY
DXY Rises ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ —
DXY Falls ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ —
Risk On 🟢 ↑ — ↑ ↓
Risk Off 🔴 ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑
Real Rates Rise ↑ ↓ ↓ — ↑
Real Rates Fall ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↓
VIX Spikes ⚠️ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑
Note: These correlations reflect general tendencies, not guarantees. They are strongest during trend-driven macro regimes and weakest during short-term, news-driven events. Always cross-check two or more signals before acting.
Pre-Trade Checklist
Answer all 5 before entering any position
1
What is DXY doing right now?
Rising DXY is a headwind for BTC and Gold. Falling DXY is a tailwind. Never enter a risk-asset long while DXY is in a strong uptrend.
2
What is the current macro regime — Risk-On or Risk-Off?
Check the VIX level and SPX trend. Above VIX 20 = caution. SPX trending down = risk-off. Be on the right side of the regime before anything else.
3
Where are real yields (10-year TIPS)?
Rising real yields are bearish for Gold and BTC. Falling real yields are bullish. A sharp 20+ bps move in either direction is actionable — check before every trade.
4
Are Gold and BTC correlated or diverging?
If they're moving together, the macro narrative dominates. If they're diverging, one of them has a specific catalyst — find it before trading either.
5
Is BTC tracking equities or decoupling?
BTC-SPX correlation above 0.6 means treat it like a risk asset. Below 0.3 means it's trading on its own drivers — shift to on-chain and crypto-specific analysis.
Regime Quick Reference
What to expect from each asset in each regime
Risk-On Regime
BTC ↑ Bullish
S&P 500 ↑ Bullish
Gold → Neutral
DXY ↓ Bearish
VIX ↓ Falling
Risk-Off Regime
BTC ↓ Bearish
S&P 500 ↓ Bearish
Gold ↑ Bullish
DXY ↑ Bullish
VIX ↑ Rising

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